World Cup Nonsense

[El Gordo]

For all my pessimism I'll nail my colours to the mast of this gargantuan ship;
England will win this World Cup.

I'd love to be able to say the same thing, and really mean it. I just don't know. It's a cup competition, so there's a toss-of-a coin element as well as a rational assessment of talent and potential. On the latter, I don't doubt that England have what it takes to win. It's the former that worries me. Think of the hand-of-God goal in 86; the disallowed Sol Campbell goal against the Argies in 98. The disallowed England goal against Portugal in Euro 2004. The freak combination of Ronaldinho's wacky shot and Seaman's wacky attempt at a save in 2002. Paul Parker's shins at Italia 90.

All these incidents cost us our places. These things happen to other teams as well as of course. But they happen. These are the bits of grit blown about by the wind of destiny. Just a fragment hitting your eyeball at the wrong time, and the party's over.

That's why I can't call it. Needless to say I hope like mad that England will do it. I know we can do it, but they're not the same thing at all.