It’s a long time since I’ve thought of UK politics as primarily a
legislative lever for social change. Since ‘studying’ it at university,
25 years ago, I’ve learnt to regard it first and foremost as a
spectator sport. Most of the players themselves would have it no other
way.
I put “studying” in quotes because it wasn’t easy to find the time to
attend lectures and tutorials. I learnt what I needed to know about
politics and the art of political manipulation not in the lecture
theatres, but during a 4 day period in my first year, when I took part
in an occupation of the admin block, part of a protest about…. what
was it? Overseas students being charged tuition fees for the first
time. It was during the first few heady months of Thatcher’s
premiership, and at last, we had a cause to fight once again. How
incredulous we would have been to learn that 20 years hence, a
Labour government would be withdrawing grants from home
students, and forcing them to pay fees. The world is turned upside
down.
Poor old Charles Kennedy; poor old Lib
Dems. Impossible not to feel some human sympathy for Kennedy after
yesterday’s pubic admission that he had an alcohol problem, even if you
know that it was a tactical confession rather than a genuine desire to
unburden his heart, square with the electorate, and feel spiritually
replenished. I don’t buy into claims of ‘noble behaviour’ and
‘courage’. No, it was expedient. And understandable. His only chance of
survival in a conflict that was growing ever more nasty.
At the time of writing, we don’t know how it develops, but it seems
likely that he will bend under the increasing pressure from his
erstwhile allies in the parliamentary party, and change his mind about
standing for election. Depends how unpleasant it gets. If his very
public abandonment turns truly vicious, and if his colleagues start to
be portrayed in the press as bullies, not trusted advisors, then he
could rebound. But either way it’s a blow for the Lib Dems.
My view? It’s not the boozing that’s his crime, but his lack of
dynamism in a period of opportunity for the party that might not come
back for another 30 years. The Tories had all but disappeared down the
plug hole of their own vanity. They were the ailing foxes waiting to be
hunted, but Kennedy never released the dogs on them. He let them get
away. That’s why he deserves to go. The alcohol is a poisson
rouge.
That said, I’m very nearly convinced that the new Tory revival is an
orgy that will come to a close rather earlier than it said on the
invitations. Am I the only Cameron cynic in the house? The man is so
lightweight that he will find himself being blown all over the place.
He personally crafted the Tories’ right-wing election manifesto just a
few months ago, but now he is on his knees – a born-again socialist,
would you believe. Well, would you believe?
Hmm. Me neither.
Cameron will start to overstretch himself very soon. He’ll be resilient
enough in the way that good public schoolboys are taught to be, but his
credibility won’t last beyond 2006. He’ll then have to choose. My
prediction? That he’ll be beaten back into line by the spluttering
indignation of the retired colonels and the blue-rinse brigade; the
very people who are supposedly whooping and throwing their hats in the
air. Like Cameron himself, they will ultimately be shown to have talked
the talk, but not quite managed to clamber out of their deepening
armchairs to walk the walk.
Tomorrow it’s back to running
